Scenario Lab · modular engine Demo data
What happens if…?
A transparent elasticity model — not a forecast. Starting figures and response settings come from each country's own live World Bank, IMF, UNDP and ILO data. Every coefficient is visible under “Why?”.
Geographic context Western Cape, South Africa
← Back to this area on the mapThis model resolves at national level only. Results below are national projections for South Africa; they are not area-specific and must not be read as outcomes for Western Cape. Area finances and allocation options are on the municipal profile.
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Public investment0 % GDP
Government consumption0 % GDP
Average tax rate0 pp
Education spending0 % GDP
Health spending0 % GDP
Policy objectives
MODELLEDModelled scenario
model elasticity velasticity-0.3 · data demo-2026.10 · assumptions-0.3 · NOT VALIDATED · baseline 2024 → 2034 · confidence Low. Not a forecast.
Key results at 2034: baseline, scenario, difference
Baseline = no policy change. Range = model run at low and high values of 7 effect assumptions. Confidence Low.
| Output | Baseline | Scenario | Difference (central) | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment (index) | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | |
| Unemployment % | 32.4 | 32.4 | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | |
| GDP (US$ bn) | 477.3 | 477.3 | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | |
| Poverty % | 17.4 | 17.4 | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | |
| Gini | 54.1 | 54.1 | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 | |
| Debt % GDP | 148.0 | 148.0 | +0.00 | +0.00 to +0.00 |
Objectives at 2034
maximise Employment
no change (+0)
minimise Poverty
no change (+0)
Foundation only — no optimisation yet.
South Africa: baseline vs scenario
| Indicator | 2025 | 2029 | 2034 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic | ||||
| GDP (US$ bn) | B 431.9 S 431.9 Δ +0.00 | B 451.5 S 451.5 Δ +0.00 | B 477.3 S 477.3 Δ +0.00 | |
| GDP growth % | B 1.11 S 1.11 Δ +0.00 | B 1.11 S 1.11 Δ +0.00 | B 1.11 S 1.11 Δ +0.00 | |
| GDP per capita US$ | B 6864 S 6864 Δ +0.00 | B 6760 S 6760 Δ +0.00 | B 6633 S 6633 Δ +0.00 | |
| Employment | ||||
| Employment (index, base 100) | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | |
| Unemployment % | B 32.4 S 32.4 Δ +0.00 | B 32.4 S 32.4 Δ +0.00 | B 32.4 S 32.4 Δ +0.00 | |
| Youth unemployment % | B 59.9 S 59.9 Δ +0.00 | B 59.9 S 59.9 Δ +0.00 | B 59.9 S 59.9 Δ +0.00 | |
| Fiscal | ||||
| Revenue % GDP | B 27 S 27 Δ +0.00 | B 27 S 27 Δ +0.00 | B 27 S 27 Δ +0.00 | |
| Expenditure % GDP | B 31 S 31 Δ +0.00 | B 31 S 31 Δ +0.00 | B 31 S 31 Δ +0.00 | |
| Fiscal balance % GDP | B -4 S -4 Δ +0.00 | B -4 S -4 Δ +0.00 | B -4 S -4 Δ +0.00 | |
| Debt % GDP | B 83.2 S 83.2 Δ +0.00 | B 112 S 112 Δ +0.00 | B 148 S 148 Δ +0.00 | |
| Trade | ||||
| Exports % GDP | B 30 S 30 Δ +0.00 | B 30 S 30 Δ +0.00 | B 30 S 30 Δ +0.00 | |
| Imports % GDP | B 33 S 33 Δ +0.00 | B 33 S 33 Δ +0.00 | B 33 S 33 Δ +0.00 | |
| Trade balance % GDP | B -3 S -3 Δ +0.00 | B -3 S -3 Δ +0.00 | B -3 S -3 Δ +0.00 | |
| Investment | ||||
| FDI % GDP | B 1.5 S 1.5 Δ +0.00 | B 1.5 S 1.5 Δ +0.00 | B 1.5 S 1.5 Δ +0.00 | |
| Domestic investment % GDP | B 16 S 16 Δ +0.00 | B 16 S 16 Δ +0.00 | B 16 S 16 Δ +0.00 | |
| Human development | ||||
| Poverty % | B 17.4 S 17.4 Δ +0.00 | B 17.4 S 17.4 Δ +0.00 | B 17.4 S 17.4 Δ +0.00 | |
| Gini | B 54.1 S 54.1 Δ +0.00 | B 54.1 S 54.1 Δ +0.00 | B 54.1 S 54.1 Δ +0.00 | |
| Household income (index) | B 99.6 S 99.6 Δ +0.00 | B 98.1 S 98.1 Δ +0.00 | B 96.2 S 96.2 Δ +0.00 | |
| Education (index) | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | |
| Health (index) | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | |
| Infrastructure & energy | ||||
| Electricity demand (index) | B 101.5 S 101.5 Δ +0.00 | B 107.7 S 107.7 Δ +0.00 | B 116.1 S 116.1 Δ +0.00 | |
| Infrastructure gap (index) | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | B 100 S 100 Δ +0.00 | |
Human development check
- Who benefits? —
- Who loses? —
- Does poverty improve? No / unclear (0.0pp)
- Does inequality improve? No / unclear (0.0)
- Does employment improve? No / unclear (0.0)
- Does household income improve? No / unclear (0.0)
- Does access to opportunity improve? No / unclear (education & jobs)
Regional effects
Qualitative regional effect ESTIMATED
Known channels between members, listed below. Direction only — no numbers.
Modelled regional effect
Not yet implemented. The platform does not calculate effects on other members.
On South Africa
See tables above (MODELLED).On other members
- Lesotho — labour: Migrant earnings and remittances
- Eswatini — trade: Most imports sourced from South Africa
- Botswana — energy: Power trade via Southern African Power Pool
- Namibia — trade: Main import source
- Botswana — revenue pool: Tariff changes alter SACU pool transfers
- Namibia — revenue pool: Tariff changes alter SACU pool transfers
- Lesotho — revenue pool: Tariff changes alter SACU pool transfers
- Eswatini — revenue pool: Tariff changes alter SACU pool transfers
On SACU as a whole
No direct revenue-pool effect from these levers.Budget-constrained intervention package
DERIVEDESTIMATEDAFFORDABLECosts × funding × delivery capacity, FY2025–FY2029. US$ million, nominal (no inflation or FX adjustment). Only CONFIRMED funds pay for the base case. Model funding-1.0 · NOT VALIDATED. Advisory only — governments decide.
You selected Western Cape. These are package-level calculations; no local labour-market data was used, so results are not local estimates.
1. Interventions
- Labour-intensive road maintenance · capex 40.0 · opex 6.0/yr
- Expanded public employment programme · capex 0.0 · opex 25.0/yr
- TVET & artisan training expansion · capex 15.0 · opex 8.0/yr
- SMME credit guarantee scheme · capex 0.0 · opex 10.0/yr
- Special economic zone incentive package · capex unknown · opex unknown/yr
2. Funding (US$m per fiscal year — your inputs)
| Source | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget reallocation (approved) CONFIRMED | |||||
Infrastructure grant (conditional) CONFIRMED · infrastructure only | |||||
Development bank loan (under negotiation) PROPOSED | |||||
Improved revenue collection POTENTIAL |
Total cost
US$115.0m
Funded (confirmed)
US$115.0m
Funding gap
US$0.0m
Jobs (direct)
921–1,906 temp. job-years
230–550 sustained
| Fiscal year | Arriving | Cost | Funded | Gap | Undeliverable | Unspent carried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| FY2026 | 35.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 |
| FY2027 | 35.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 |
| FY2028 | 35.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 |
| FY2029 | 35.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 |
Not counted in the base case: Development bank loan (under negotiation) (PROPOSED, US$80.0m); Improved revenue collection (POTENTIAL, US$50.0m).
3. Alternatives & stress tests No probabilities assigned.
| Case | Status | Gap | Temp. job-years | Sustained jobs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proposed package (confirmed funds only) | AFFORDABLE | 0.0 | 921–1,906 | 230–550 |
| If proposed & potential funds materialise | AFFORDABLE | 0.0 | 921–1,906 | 230–550 |
| Lower funding (confirmed −30%) | UNDERFUNDED | 15.0 | 876–1,816 | 80–150 |
| Higher cost (+30%) | UNDERFUNDED | 13.2 | 891–1,845 | 80–150 |
| Delayed delivery (+2 years) | AFFORDABLE | 0.0 | 675–1,398 | 230–550 |
| Lower employment yield (−40%) | AFFORDABLE | 0.0 | 553–1,144 | 138–330 |
4. Challenge an assumption & rerun
Official observations are never edited here.