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Monitoring · 10 min

Signals, watchlists and adaptive review

Learning objective

Use events as prompts to reassess assumptions without treating headlines as forecasts.

Global Signals combines public feeds with country-relevant assessments. An event’s source, verification, severity and relevance are different pieces of evidence.

Step by step

  1. 1
    Choose a country; switch between For you, All signals, Map, Watchlists and Sources. Open →
  2. 2
    Filter by category, severity, period or source. Open a signal and read why it matters, affected countries and the original source.
  3. 3
    Save it, mark it read and inspect the full A–G assessment. Separate the reported event from possible transmission channels.
  4. 4
    Use Model in Scenario Planner when relevant, then review the baseline, exposure and assumptions rather than treating severity as a numerical model input. Open →
  5. 5
    Keep a watchlist and record what new evidence would trigger a plan review.

Limitations and common mistakes

  • Feed coverage is incomplete; no signal is not proof that no event occurred.
  • Severity is not a probability, verified loss or guaranteed future impact.
  • A public notification may be a proposal, not an effective rule. Check dates and original documents.

Check your understanding

Optional and not scored — pick an answer to see the explanation.

A signal is marked severe. What can you conclude?